After the 2014 European Championships I had written off any chance that Aliya Mustafina would medal at Worlds but after her Russian Cup performances all of that has changed. Aliya was very lucky to medal in the All Around back in 2013, she was coming off an injury and wasn't showing her best. To her benefit the others faltered on one or more pieces and opened the door for a consistent Mustafina to step right in and take a medal.
With the emergence of the new Aliya some are painting her as a credible challenge to Simon Biles. Andy Thornton over at American Gymnast wrote a very good
article comparing the two's potential D-score and other things. The real question is what is behind this change of focus when it appeared Aliya would not be in the mix.
The first reason is that Larisa Iordache, the most credible threat for most of the early part of the year has been showing inconsistencies and lack of improvement. At last week's Romanian event she showed upgrades but made big mistakes while attempting some of those elements. She touched the beam on one of her high scoring tumbles, had an issue with her layout, messed up on bars and hasn't upgraded on vault. The only saving grace for Larisa is that any mistake by Simone on floor will for sure give her the title.
Yao Jinnan on the other hand has worked ferociously to get an uneven bars routine that reaches 7.0 without the Mo salto. The only problem with her is that her tumbling isn't all that there and I don't know if the judges are going to kill her on that or if they are going to Iordache it like they are doing for Larisa on bars. There really isn't too much out there about her and I don't know what she is going to be doing but I wouldn't be shocked if she surprised me.
Now to the actual battle, Andy Thornton did a nice graph showing their current D-scores but I want to predict the attempted D-scores at Worlds. Below are their current D-scores.
Starting off on vault, both gymnasts are locked with those respective vaults a two and a half and a double yurchenko. Both gymnasts have mastered their vaults and the likelihood of anything changing in that is highly unlikely. If something did change it would be news in and of itself.
On uneven bars both gymnasts are going to be making upgrades because they are both capable of more but are saving themselves. Simone Biles is more conservative on this piece is likely only going to adding her 3 tenths back She performed a 6.1 routine last year and there is no sign that she is going to launch a full upgrade.
Aliya has been performing a watered down routine of 6.3, the same one that she has been using for home and continental competitions. After her defeat at Euros she is sure to add difficulty to be able to challenge Downie and the Chinese. I don't expect her to bring back her 2013 Worlds routine, instead I assume she will add a chow 1/2 after her pak release and do her Mustafina dismount. The first addition would add 2 tenths of connection value and 1 tenth for having an E element instead of an D. The dismount upgrade would add another one tenth of value giving her a D-score of 6.7.
Moving on to the balance beam we have Simone performing an upgraded 6.5 routine. She showed that at US nationals and fell once while doing said routine. The mood so far with Simone is that she is going to play it safe because she knows that she has a big lead over most of her challengers. A fall at Nationals didn't make a difference but at Worlds it will surely put it in contention regardless of what the NBC commentators said. She's definitely capable of more but it might come at a cost.
Last year this piece was Aliya's weakest during the All Around and that appears to have changed. Her D-score on beam ranged from 6.4 to 6.6 during Russian Cup. The overwhelming opinion is that she is going for even more connections and could get credited with more. The problem is that it came from a domestic event which can be misleading - Jordyn Wieber 2012. I feel that she will try to keep it at 6.6, she'll go for more but will probably only be awarded with the 6.6. If you couple that with her being the reigning World Champion on beam and her sudden improvement in consistency, then she should be rewarded with a better score than last year.
The floor is the apparatus that both gymnasts are likely going to focus upgrades on. Simone has a 6.5 D-score on floor but has shown some faults. She received 6.4 on the second day of Nationals after an incomplete rotation on a leap. She can easily upgrade her eponymous jump with a full twisting double layout. I would expect that rather than seeing her add a complicated turning element. I would put her D-score at 6.5 to 6.6.
Aliya's D-score at the Cup was only 5.7 with three tumbling passes, one of which was watered down. This routine is certainly not the one that she is going to be performing at Worlds, don't assume that for a second. She is more likely to use last year's routine as a base. She will probably add whips to her double arabian mount for 2 tenths extra. She can add her triple twist or the double layout she has been working on for the past few years. For the purpose of this we shall assume the former and add 5 tenths. Her D-score would be 6.4 assuming she hits everything and that's not a sure thing.
A+A E+A (+.3), D+C (+.2), E, D, E+B (+.1), D, C
Aliya would have a higher D-score but would be taking more of a risk by doing complicated connections. GymnasticsCoaching mentioned they would prefer seeing Aliya be clean, which was her strategy last year. I think we've moved on from being clean, that title belongs to Kyla Ross - always clean never spectacular. Aliya needs to be herself and if she's practiced well enough should hit. Simone needs to be herself and that's it - she doesn't need others missing.
If you agree with me or disagree drop me a line and please go read Andy's long article.
There is so much news coming out and not enough of the real substantive material that people actually want to know. We know all of the teams have arrived and that they've been working out at the practice hall but we don't know what they'll be performing. The small videos that have come out are of the Chinese gymnasts training very basic stuff and not really making many mistakes. We are no closer to knowing what the gymnasts will be putting out than we were last week.
I have to applaud the Russian team for not using social media since they've arrived in China. The most that has been put out is one or two pictures and that's that. The pictures I do have of them training were taken by a nosey coach from another squad - you know who you are! Check them out below and the Russian ladies aren't looking prepared for the camera.
