Opinion: Worlds Predictions

The gymnastics blogs are coming out with predictions for the 2014 Worlds and after reading Beautiful Gymnastics predictions I felt compelled to come out with my own. There were some very differing views on some of the events that made me think I needed to come out with something that expressed how I felt things would actually turn out.

I'm only going to try and predict the women's field because the men are so competitive it is just so hard to narrow it down. If one compares the men's teams to the women's teams then you realize that around eight or more teams have a chance of medalling where the women only have only five real contenders. Then to complicate things even more the men have specialist from far away countries like Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Azerbaijan that could medal on any given piece. To use figures, at the 2012 Olympics in the women's event finals only five nations medalled.

Team All-Around

1. United States 
2. China
3. Russia
4. Great Britain
5. Romania

Romania, with the lose of one of their strongest gymnasts is all but out of a chance of medalling unless they find a gymnast to fill those big shoes. Great Britain has good gymnasts but are weak on beam and are sure to face a much stiffer competition from the Russians than they did at Europeans. The Chinese have not been seen much at international competitions but with great bar workers are sure to build a lead from that. Two and three could change hands if the Chinese don't bring it. Then there is the US which is the team to beat but if they miss twice this title is going down fast. Nothing is certain but if everyone hits this is going to be the order that will likely occur.

Individual All-Around

1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Larisa Iordache
4. Kyla Ross

If everyone hits the order is going to go down like that but as we know everyone doesn't usually hit in the all-around. We seem to know what Simone is capable of performing but the three other gymnasts are all up in the air. I had intended to put Kyla Ross in third but her difficulty is really down and even a miss by Larisa would probably keep her ahead of Kyla. I wouldn't be surprised if someone else on the US team didn't edge her out in qualifications. Aliya has raised her difficulty but I haven't seen her sets to fully say she has a shot at winning. So far this year the top three have been better than Kyla and are more consistent.

Vault

1. Simone Biles
2. Mykayla Skinner
3. Giulia Steingruber
4. Hong un Jong
5. Maria Paseka

The vault is by far the easiest prediction of the Worlds, everyone knows that Biles will likely win and if not then Skinner will. The real battle is for third place and that is likely going to the very consistent Giulia Steingruber but that doesn't mean that Hong un Jong won't take it away with two solid vaults. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Paseka hits two vaults and finishes in fifth place but that's unlikely to occur.

Uneven Bars

1. Yao Jinnan
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Becky Downie
4. Ashton Locklear
5. Huang Huidan
6. Viktoria Komova
7. Kyla Ross
8. Ruby Harold

Bars is like a complete mystery because it can change in instant even with the best gymnast. Predictions are almost worthless on bars because one small mistake means everything on bars. Yao Jinnan was expected to win last year and ended up not even medalling. I think last year's failure has motivated her more than any other gymnast - she's the one to beat, execution score and difficulty. Aliya has been cleaner than any other gymnast and if she is able to stay healthy and stay clean she is a top candidate for silver. Third place was a struggle for me because I know Becky Downie is more inconsistent than any other gymnast on this list. If she hits then third place is hers or it could be Huidan's too.

I think that Huidan will make a small error based on some of her performances this year but could surprise me. Ashton is in fourth because she is consistent and I think that if it goes like last year then consistent will place well. I went out on a limb and said Komova will make the team and make finals but with her off form she won't be a threat for medal this year. Kyla Ross lacks the difficulty to challenge this year as everyone else has upgraded. Harold is in last place because her consistency is lacking and her difficulty could be higher.

There are five gymnasts that have a realistic shot at winning the title and the others are only hoping that all five miss and let them have the title.

Balance Beam

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Maria Kharenkova
4. Bai Yawen
5. Simone Biles
6. Andreea Munteanu
7. Kyla Ross
8. Shang Chunsong

I think that this is the year that Larisa finally wins a beam title but then again if she does a horrible layout like at Euros then she can kiss that gold away. It is quite sad how a gymnast can do a very big element and then struggle on a less difficult one. Her best bet is to go for the big elements and hope for the payoff. Aliya is the defending champion and her new additions on beam should keep her in the medal picture. She could defend the title but the judges are favoring Larisa at the moment but that could change. Maria Kharenkova is in third because of her consistency and difficulty. The tipping point for me was that Bai Yawen does some combinations to get bonuses and executes them poorly - that is sure to cost her more than the bonus.

Simone Biles is in fifth place because her difficulty is lacking - she's playing it safe to stay on the beam. We saw how that went at Nationals which we can assume she will take into consideration at Worlds. Andreaa has big difficulty but has missed when it matters and also lacks that prestige that is required to win. Kyla's lack of difficulty will finally catch up to her on this final - even if she hits she will not be in the top three. Chunsong is inconsistent when the lights are on her and I can't see her winning a medal this time around.

Floor

1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Claudia Fragapane
4. Mykayla Skinner
5. Aliya Mustafina
6. Giulia Steingruber
7. Vanessa Ferrari
8. Shang Chunsong

The floor final is the final everyone knows who is going to win but doesn't know where everyone else is going to place. I'll focus on two through eight, Larisa is the front runner for silver because of her upgrades and her general comfort with the skills she performs - if she stays on her feet silver is hers. I'm going to go against my better judgment and say Fragapane medals on floor - she sticks her very complicated saltos with bad form which the judges ignore.

Skinner is super inconsistent and that Moors is dreadful even when she lands it in bounce. Aliya is back in the floor finals because she has awesome non-acrobatic combinations and complicated saltos. Her twisting form is going to give her major deductions but could sneak in because she feeds of the pressure. Giulia is very inconsistent on this piece this year and has zero artistry - judges, please judge her on that. Vanessa hit once and I don't think that she can hit twice in a year. Shang Chunsong is in last place because the judges find errors in her saltos that no one else can spot and will probably hammer her on that alone.

Agree or disagree with me? Let me know, if you comment with something compelling I might just change the orders.

Russian World Team Preditctions

Russia Cup has not completed but I have decided to release my predictions for what the team will likely look like. I will definitely be updating based on the performance of gymnasts during this week's remaining days of competition. This year World team will consist of six team members as opposed to the usual five that will take part in the Olympic games. The format is six team members, up to five take part on each apparatus, in the qualification, and four scores count. The team all around is three up three count.

The team will likely be as follows,

World Team: Aliya Mustafina, Maria Kharenkova, Alla Sosnitskaya, Maria Paseka, Viktoria Komova and Daria Spiridonova.

 Alternatives: Anna Rodionova, Tatiana Nabieva?

On vault the team will be anchored by Maria Paseka's very shaky Amanar, two and a half twisting yurchenko. The vault is a mess of a vault but it is something she is landing and the team really needs someone that can anything more difficult than a full twisting yurchenko. Aliya is expected to do a solid double twisting yurchenko that will boost the team's vault scores. Alla Sosnitskaya is a respectable double twisting yurchenko as well but it wouldn't stand up against Afanaseyva's or Grishina's. Maria Kharenkova is likely going to attempt her single twisting yurchenko and Daria Spiridonova might too.

The uneven bars appears to be a much more solid piece for the Russian team and they are likely to have more than three solid routines to choose from. Aliya Mustafina is the lead on this apparatus, she is the defending bronze medalist, and is expected to bring a 6.7 bars routine. The return of Viktoria Komova is going to give Russia a 6.5 plus routine with a good reputation. Daria Spiridonova is likely to be third on bars with her solid 6.4 routine. She did well at the Euros and should try and use some of that success to lead her at the Worlds.

The fourth gymnast that could partake is Kharenkova who was spotted working a 6.1 bars routine. She made a mistake during qualifications of the Russia Cup but could have hit that routine. There is also Maria Paseka who is known to swing bars with a very limited difficulty but should be able to get through a routine.

The beam is a more tricky piece to predict but the top two are almost a given, Kharenkova and Mustafina. Kharenkova has established herself as a specialist on this apparatus and has so far been good enough to make the team. Aliya on the other hand is the reigning world champion on beam and would certainly be performing on this piece. She has a 6.4 routine with the potential for more connection bonuses.

The question really surrounds who will be that third gymnast as the options are limited. Komova seems to be the ideal option and would be great for the team but can she prepare a piece for this apparatus? The other option is Daria Spiridonova, she has good form and has some difficulty but can she hit when the team needs her? The head coach doesn't appear to have said faith in her and will not likely be performing on this piece unless they require her.

On the final piece, the floor, the Russian team has a couple of options and will be determined on the qualifications. Aliya is going to compete this piece and given her good track record on this piece she is good for the team. I only hope that she will be able to perform her high difficult routine at this year's Worlds. Then Maria Paseka, Alla and Maria Paseka will compete for the two final spots. At this point it is a real toss up and the best scores are going to dictate the moves that Russia makes.

Do you agree with my decisions? Leave a comment.

Analyzing Predictions for The US World Championship Team

Andy Thornton, a writer for American Gymnast,  has come out with a list of his predictions for the US women's national team for the World's. I decided that to analyze his choices and see what potential D-score they could perform at the World's. Andy's predicted team is as follows,

Projected Six-Member Team: Simone Biles, Kyla Ross,  Rachel Gowey, Madison Kocian, MyKayla Skinner Brenna Dowell

Alternatives: Maggie Nichols and Amelia Hundley 

As a fan of gymnastics and as someone that generally knows most of the gymnasts, I had to scratch my head because I hadn't heard of some of these athletes. I looked on YouTube and found their D-scores and some of their performances so far this year. Last week's US Classic revealed a lot and that is probably where Andy is basing his predictions off of. Below is a table showing how he predicts the rotation assignments will be.

The easiest rotation to predict is vault, the US team has a strong batch of gymnasts all capable performing 6.3 vaults or higher. The vault that will be done the most is going to be the Amanar - two and a half twisting yurchenko. The only exception on the team is going to be Skinner's Cheng vault that starts out of a 6.4. The problem with her vault is that she scores much lower than the other gymnasts performing an Amanar. She scored 15.00 compared to high 15's for the others.

Biles is going to perform an Amanar, D-score 6.3. Skinner will do a Cheng, D-score 6.4. Dowell will likely be the third vaulter on the team, that's my opinion not Andy's. She did a mediocre to good vault as opposed to the sat down Amanar that Gowey did. She will do an Amanar as well, D-score 6.3.

Note: Skinner runs the risk of being given a zero if both her hands don't touch the vaulting horse. She has the tendency of only pushing off with one hand. It is an odd technique that so far has worked for her but a recipe for disaster.

The uneven bars is by far the weakest rotation for the US national team and the hardest to predict. The strongest gymnast on this apparatus, Kyla Ross, was coming off an injury and watered down her routine. She left out an inbar stalder with a half turn and could thus had a few tenths less than she would have otherwise. She will likely have a routine of 6.6 for the World's - that's what she had last year when she won the silver medal on this apparatus.

The other two team members will likely carry a D-score of around 6.3. It is really hard to tell what they are holding back on but that seems to be the difficulty these three gymnasts are toping at. Biles and Kocian are my picks for this rotation based on their consistency so far.

The balance beam is unpredictable because gymnasts are rewarded various D-score based on hit connections. Kyla Ross is fluctuating from a 6.1 when she hits all her connections to 5.7 when she doesn't. Her routine hasn't been evaluated by international judges and can't really be predicted so far - remember Jordyn Wieber's varying D-score from 2012. We can assume 6.1 for the purposes of this assessment.

Simone Biles is the real star of the balance beam for the team when she hits. She is quite consistent but lacks that finishing touch on this apparatus. That really doesn't take much away from her given that she does some of the biggest moves on the beam. She's going for a 6.3 D-score. Her form is what's going to do her if her lack of connections don't.

Gowey is a beam specialist in my book, she does some of her most complex work on this apparatus and is only good on the others. She was given a 6.3 D-score on this piece and didn't even throw down some of the biggest moves like Simone. Her form will certainly be called out at World's but at national events expect her to receive massive scores.

The floor, I predict that the World title will be won and lost on floor. That goes for all the other national teams as well. The floor received the most drastic overhaul since the last cycle and gymnasts who aren't Simone Biles and Ksenia Afanasyeva have all failed to crack the15.00 mark multiple times at an international event since the beginning of the current cycle.

Simone Biles, if from what I'm lead to believe, from the US scoring system, has a 6.6 D-score. That is crazy for a gymnast that lacks many of the connected dance elements like a Ksenia. The scary thing about this gymnast is that she sticks most of her jumps and they aren't easy ones. The bad part is that she doesn't get called out for poor toe-point and form on some of her leap-spins.

Skinner on the other hand has the difficulty but lacks the form and consistency that Biles has. If the US team puts her on the lineup they are going to be taking a big risk that could pay off or cost them the gold. The mistake would need to be massive but it is still a risk nonetheless. She has a D-score that hovers around 6.3 and is bolstered by her double twisting double layout - the Moors. That element is worth nine tenths but her form is very piked that she could easily see more deductions than points.

The team will likely go with Ross for the third spot, she has upgraded her floor routine this season. At the US Classic she didn't under-rotate any of her jumps - something that she was having problems with in 2013. Her new first tumbling pass is a whip to double arabian. She appeared to have some minor issues with the landing and was hovering the line - not a good sign if she wants to add a stag jump to it. Her D-score is hovering at 5.7 but could easily be pushed to 5.8.

The run-down is that these numbers are points higher than any other national team the US team will be facing against. It is safe to say that the team could win with one fall but would open the door to another team with two falls. There won't be any other team that will have three Amanars on vault - there just isn't any nation training it like the US.

These predictions are quite solid by Andy and utilize the best gymnast available in the right places. Now to see if Marta will actually do this or go experimental. Only time will tell!