Analyzing Predictions for The US World Championship Team

Andy Thornton, a writer for American Gymnast,  has come out with a list of his predictions for the US women's national team for the World's. I decided that to analyze his choices and see what potential D-score they could perform at the World's. Andy's predicted team is as follows,

Projected Six-Member Team: Simone Biles, Kyla Ross,  Rachel Gowey, Madison Kocian, MyKayla Skinner Brenna Dowell

Alternatives: Maggie Nichols and Amelia Hundley 

As a fan of gymnastics and as someone that generally knows most of the gymnasts, I had to scratch my head because I hadn't heard of some of these athletes. I looked on YouTube and found their D-scores and some of their performances so far this year. Last week's US Classic revealed a lot and that is probably where Andy is basing his predictions off of. Below is a table showing how he predicts the rotation assignments will be.

The easiest rotation to predict is vault, the US team has a strong batch of gymnasts all capable performing 6.3 vaults or higher. The vault that will be done the most is going to be the Amanar - two and a half twisting yurchenko. The only exception on the team is going to be Skinner's Cheng vault that starts out of a 6.4. The problem with her vault is that she scores much lower than the other gymnasts performing an Amanar. She scored 15.00 compared to high 15's for the others.

Biles is going to perform an Amanar, D-score 6.3. Skinner will do a Cheng, D-score 6.4. Dowell will likely be the third vaulter on the team, that's my opinion not Andy's. She did a mediocre to good vault as opposed to the sat down Amanar that Gowey did. She will do an Amanar as well, D-score 6.3.

Note: Skinner runs the risk of being given a zero if both her hands don't touch the vaulting horse. She has the tendency of only pushing off with one hand. It is an odd technique that so far has worked for her but a recipe for disaster.

The uneven bars is by far the weakest rotation for the US national team and the hardest to predict. The strongest gymnast on this apparatus, Kyla Ross, was coming off an injury and watered down her routine. She left out an inbar stalder with a half turn and could thus had a few tenths less than she would have otherwise. She will likely have a routine of 6.6 for the World's - that's what she had last year when she won the silver medal on this apparatus.

The other two team members will likely carry a D-score of around 6.3. It is really hard to tell what they are holding back on but that seems to be the difficulty these three gymnasts are toping at. Biles and Kocian are my picks for this rotation based on their consistency so far.

The balance beam is unpredictable because gymnasts are rewarded various D-score based on hit connections. Kyla Ross is fluctuating from a 6.1 when she hits all her connections to 5.7 when she doesn't. Her routine hasn't been evaluated by international judges and can't really be predicted so far - remember Jordyn Wieber's varying D-score from 2012. We can assume 6.1 for the purposes of this assessment.

Simone Biles is the real star of the balance beam for the team when she hits. She is quite consistent but lacks that finishing touch on this apparatus. That really doesn't take much away from her given that she does some of the biggest moves on the beam. She's going for a 6.3 D-score. Her form is what's going to do her if her lack of connections don't.

Gowey is a beam specialist in my book, she does some of her most complex work on this apparatus and is only good on the others. She was given a 6.3 D-score on this piece and didn't even throw down some of the biggest moves like Simone. Her form will certainly be called out at World's but at national events expect her to receive massive scores.

The floor, I predict that the World title will be won and lost on floor. That goes for all the other national teams as well. The floor received the most drastic overhaul since the last cycle and gymnasts who aren't Simone Biles and Ksenia Afanasyeva have all failed to crack the15.00 mark multiple times at an international event since the beginning of the current cycle.

Simone Biles, if from what I'm lead to believe, from the US scoring system, has a 6.6 D-score. That is crazy for a gymnast that lacks many of the connected dance elements like a Ksenia. The scary thing about this gymnast is that she sticks most of her jumps and they aren't easy ones. The bad part is that she doesn't get called out for poor toe-point and form on some of her leap-spins.

Skinner on the other hand has the difficulty but lacks the form and consistency that Biles has. If the US team puts her on the lineup they are going to be taking a big risk that could pay off or cost them the gold. The mistake would need to be massive but it is still a risk nonetheless. She has a D-score that hovers around 6.3 and is bolstered by her double twisting double layout - the Moors. That element is worth nine tenths but her form is very piked that she could easily see more deductions than points.

The team will likely go with Ross for the third spot, she has upgraded her floor routine this season. At the US Classic she didn't under-rotate any of her jumps - something that she was having problems with in 2013. Her new first tumbling pass is a whip to double arabian. She appeared to have some minor issues with the landing and was hovering the line - not a good sign if she wants to add a stag jump to it. Her D-score is hovering at 5.7 but could easily be pushed to 5.8.

The run-down is that these numbers are points higher than any other national team the US team will be facing against. It is safe to say that the team could win with one fall but would open the door to another team with two falls. There won't be any other team that will have three Amanars on vault - there just isn't any nation training it like the US.

These predictions are quite solid by Andy and utilize the best gymnast available in the right places. Now to see if Marta will actually do this or go experimental. Only time will tell!