News! News! and News!

There is so much news coming out and not enough of the real substantive material that people actually want to know. We know all of the teams have arrived and that they've been working out at the practice hall but we don't know what they'll be performing. The small videos that have come out are of the Chinese gymnasts training very basic stuff and not really making many mistakes. We are no closer to knowing what the gymnasts will be putting out than we were last week.

I have to applaud the Russian team for not using social media since they've arrived in China. The most that has been put out is one or two pictures and that's that. The pictures I do have of them training were taken by a nosey coach from another squad - you know who you are! Check them out below and the Russian ladies aren't looking prepared for the camera.

For more pictures of the Russians please visit Arabian Punch Front.

Japanese men were expected to win the team event but word from podium training is that they have a super weak lineup on still rings and a very weak set on parallel bars. We did know that they have some major players that can score massive scores but can they take the low scores? I don't know considering the Chinese are coming on strong and are at home. I'm a bit surprised they didn't at least bring a still ring specialist given the six member team.

Word on the internet is that the US team is rock solid and more than their usual self. This could be good or bad if they end up leaving their best on the podium training and not the on competition day.

Chilean gymnasts Tomas Gonzalez hasn't been rock solid on floor but on vault he's a beast. He recently posted on his instagram a stuck Tsuk double piked, 6.0 vault. The vault is not easy to stick and if he's doing them like that he's going to gain that Kristian Thomas execution quality reputation. This vault also stands out because of the word on the internet that the vault is not as good, some of the top vaulters are struggling on this horse/springboard.

Gymnastics News: Teams Arrive to Nanning

Teams are starting to arrive in Nanning and some much sooner than others. It appears that the US team was probably one of the earliest team to arrive. On the men's side two US male gymnasts were spotted in Nanning, Danell Leyva was one of them. I don't assume that two of the guys were going to fly out by themselves which should mean that they are all there. The US women are also in Nanning as a photo of them surfaces online. The picture features them next to a giant statue of the official mascot of the Nanning Worlds.

If you look closely you might spot a bandage over the leg of one of the gymnasts. I think that the gymnast in question is Ashton Locklear. I find it quite strange that she would flash the injury as all the other gymnasts have their legs covered. Either way an injury to her leg won't make much of a difference given she is a bars specialist.

The Romanian national team released a few images before they left for China - at least I think it was before. I think that they would look a bit sleepy and tired if they had just arrived from a very long flight. They look in very good spirits but besides Larisa Iordache I can't name any of the gymnasts on that team.

Team Russia boarded a plane earlier today and a few pictures from some of the national team members have shown that. It appears as though Alla Sosnitskaya and Daria Spiridonova have been assigned seats together. Another image shows Tatiana Nabieva and Aliya Mustafina drinking something at a coffee shop.

There is no word on the men's national team for Russia but it's probably safe to say that they were on the same plane. I was lead to believe that the team would be there by the 27th of September which would mean they had to leave on the 26th.

Frances men's national team has arrived a few days ago and so has Chilean gymnast Gonzalez, first name escapes me right now. It seems he was training with the French team in France before heading to China.

Team Azerbaijan is also China bound as the very lovely Oleg Stepko has posted a picture of him at the airport waiting for his flight.

Gymnastics News: Alla Sosnitskaya Working a Cheng Vault

Russian gymnast Alla Sosnitskaya, vault and floor specialist, has rocked the gymternet with a leaked video of her performing a decent looking Cheng vault. The Cheng vault is valued at a 6.4, one tenth higher than the Amanar vault. With the addition of such a vault the Russian team's chances are looking much better not only for the team event but for maybe a vaulting medal.

If Alla is able to perform the Cheng and the double twisting yurchenko she will have the same difficulty as MyKyala Skinner, my favorite to win a medal on vault. If she does have this vault ready she is sure to make vault finals more interesting considering how many gymnasts are performing high difficulty vaults. We only need to look back three years to find a time when there were only three gymnasts doing difficult vaults and the champion was a given.

On the team side of things a Cheng vault would bolster a lineup made up of double twisting yurchenkos. This vault performed at a medium level would score at least a 15. That 15 is equivalent to a stuck double.

On other news I will start to post more as podium training gets under way in Nanning.

Gymnastics News: Komova Out, Afanasyeva In & Out, and Nabieva Maybe In?

Over the last couple of days information has been filtering out from the Russian camp and primarily from the mouth of Valentina Radionenko. The major news revealed was that Komova was ruled out of the 2014 Worlds because of the danger of preparing a second apparatus was too great. At first I thought she was fragile and something might be wrong but the more I read the more I realized that she has been ruled out over the two apparatus rule. The two apparatus rule is a freak rule made up by Valentina and one that she is sticking to no matter what.

The rule seems to have emerged since last year's World and the previous one - back in 2011. The Russian team would send strong gymnasts but would end up with many injuries and the team would be left in an uncomfortable position. Since that time the team directors have wanted a team made up of gymnasts that can fill in if an injury were to emerge to anyone. I think that it's an idiotic move when the team is made up six members as opposed to the Olympic standard five.

I think that Komova can add a high standard bars set with a high probability of a hit routine. If it was up to me I would make room for her but then again they might not be able to have that privilege. All I want to say is that I hope that Ekaterina Kramarenko better be used on at least one piece to justify her inclusion.

The second big news of the first article was the sudden reappearance of Ksenia Afanasyeva. Valentina mentioned her as a possible replacement of the now injured Maria Paseka. Along with Ksenia, Tatiana Nabieva's name was mentioned. It was thought that Ksenia was working on a vault and a floor routine for the Worlds. A few days after the original article came out the doctors ruled her out. It appears they had a major mock meet and it probably showed everyone what we all had assumed. It is really in Ksenia's best interest to do what she wants and not what Valentina wants - we know how it ended last time.

Maria Paseka is nothing to Valentina and it shows by the way she is spoken about. It appears Maria twisted an ankle or injured it in some way resulting in swelling but not a serious injury. Valentina mentions a lack of confidence and so forth which lead to her removal. There was a real good reason for her lack of confidence and that was her horrible Russia Cup performance. It wasn't horrible but for where she's supposed to be it was to me. The sad thing is that her business is being aired out in the open like nothing is wrong with that.

Nabieva is the only real option unless the emergence of Polina Fedorova is a serious option. The Polina option shows that the team is searching for a beam worker and not a bars worker. Tatiana is weak on beam and Fedorova has only ever shined on that piece if with low 14s. That's not convincing to me which explains why I think that Nabieva is a likely candidate to fill that last spot. I only hope that she doesn't fall of the bars like she did in 2010 and upgrades her difficulty.

The Russian camp is a serious mess and it is screaming 2013 all over again. There has got to be something wrong with the way something is being done in Russia. More news is sure to filter out and I'll withhold predictions until then.

Breaking Down: Triple Turn With Free Leg Held at Horizontal

Mexican gymnast Ana Lago is back from a bad ACL injury a few years ago and is practicing some seriously good moves. Ana is quite good on floor and won a medal at the Pan Am games a few years back - I think she won gold. Too much hasn't come out with regards to her or for almost any of the Mexican gymnasts for that case.

Ana posted a video of her performing the triple turn with ease and elegance on her Instagram account. It was seriously good, she is probably going to do a turn out of it to get that one tenth bonus. Given the way the CoP works this move is likely to get credited as an E - similarly to the triple twisting with leg held at 90°. That move is the one that Aliya Mustafina is training and now performing.

If she performs it at the Worlds the move is likely going to be named after her and that's a big achievement when only two elements are named after Mexicans. The one move that I do know is the Magaña - a triple back tuck off the uneven bars.

Gymnastics News: U.S. Worlds Team Named

The 2014 U.S. National Team for the 2014 World Championships in Nanning has been named. The U.S. is one of the first teams to name an official squad on the women's field. Most of the other nations are waiting until the official required date to come out with an official squad. The lists out there are tentative working team that can all be changed with relative ease.

The team is as follows,

• Simone Biles
• Kyla Ross
• Mykayla Skinner
• Ashton Locklear
• Alyssa Baumann
• Madison Kocian
• Madison Desch

Non-travelling Alternate,

• Brenna Dowell

I named the squad in order of importance to the squad and based on how many apparatuses they would likely be required to perform on. Below is a list of what apparatuses each member will be asked to perform.

Simone Biles: Vault, Beam, Floor

Kyla Ross: Vault, Bars, Beam, Floor

Mykayla Skinner: Vault, Floor

Ashton Locklear: Bars

Alyssa Baumann: Beam

Madison Kocian: Bars

Traveling Alternate: Madison Desch

Biles is the most important gymnast on the squad because she can bring in big numbers on most pieces but will likely skip bars if Kyla Ross has upgraded. 

Ross on the other hand might be asked to do all four pieces because her vault is stronger than the other three gymnasts, she is a bars specialist hence her likely working bars, beam is a piece she's consistent, floor is likely because they don't have any other gymnast that can score above 14.


Mykayla Skinner is a vault and floor specialist and would definitely be on those two pieces. I think it's a big risk to put her on floor given her sometimes erratic performances but they have no other option. The same could be said about her vault - I doubt they'll give her a penalty for not putting both her hands on the vaulting horse though.

Ashton Locklear is a one trick pony and good at that. She is solid on bars and definitely merits being on the team.

Alyssa Baumann is an okay beam worker although I think it is very low in difficulty but was rewarded in execution at the domestic tournaments. She has the potential to be the next Jordyn Wieber if the judges don't like her form.

Madison Kocian is mostly a bars specialist and could challenge Biles for the team final bars spot. If she doesn't then Biles would be the first up on bars during team final. I think it will come down to qualification scores or could be a strategic move to keep Biles rested for the All-Around.

The team is looking very suspect right now and I would say that if the Chinese are hitting on team final night then they are going to have a challenge. I doubt that will happen though but this U.S. team is not the dream team they had in London.

What do you think about my predictions?

Opinion: Worlds Predictions

The gymnastics blogs are coming out with predictions for the 2014 Worlds and after reading Beautiful Gymnastics predictions I felt compelled to come out with my own. There were some very differing views on some of the events that made me think I needed to come out with something that expressed how I felt things would actually turn out.

I'm only going to try and predict the women's field because the men are so competitive it is just so hard to narrow it down. If one compares the men's teams to the women's teams then you realize that around eight or more teams have a chance of medalling where the women only have only five real contenders. Then to complicate things even more the men have specialist from far away countries like Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Azerbaijan that could medal on any given piece. To use figures, at the 2012 Olympics in the women's event finals only five nations medalled.

Team All-Around

1. United States 
2. China
3. Russia
4. Great Britain
5. Romania

Romania, with the lose of one of their strongest gymnasts is all but out of a chance of medalling unless they find a gymnast to fill those big shoes. Great Britain has good gymnasts but are weak on beam and are sure to face a much stiffer competition from the Russians than they did at Europeans. The Chinese have not been seen much at international competitions but with great bar workers are sure to build a lead from that. Two and three could change hands if the Chinese don't bring it. Then there is the US which is the team to beat but if they miss twice this title is going down fast. Nothing is certain but if everyone hits this is going to be the order that will likely occur.

Individual All-Around

1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Larisa Iordache
4. Kyla Ross

If everyone hits the order is going to go down like that but as we know everyone doesn't usually hit in the all-around. We seem to know what Simone is capable of performing but the three other gymnasts are all up in the air. I had intended to put Kyla Ross in third but her difficulty is really down and even a miss by Larisa would probably keep her ahead of Kyla. I wouldn't be surprised if someone else on the US team didn't edge her out in qualifications. Aliya has raised her difficulty but I haven't seen her sets to fully say she has a shot at winning. So far this year the top three have been better than Kyla and are more consistent.

Vault

1. Simone Biles
2. Mykayla Skinner
3. Giulia Steingruber
4. Hong un Jong
5. Maria Paseka

The vault is by far the easiest prediction of the Worlds, everyone knows that Biles will likely win and if not then Skinner will. The real battle is for third place and that is likely going to the very consistent Giulia Steingruber but that doesn't mean that Hong un Jong won't take it away with two solid vaults. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Paseka hits two vaults and finishes in fifth place but that's unlikely to occur.

Uneven Bars

1. Yao Jinnan
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Becky Downie
4. Ashton Locklear
5. Huang Huidan
6. Viktoria Komova
7. Kyla Ross
8. Ruby Harold

Bars is like a complete mystery because it can change in instant even with the best gymnast. Predictions are almost worthless on bars because one small mistake means everything on bars. Yao Jinnan was expected to win last year and ended up not even medalling. I think last year's failure has motivated her more than any other gymnast - she's the one to beat, execution score and difficulty. Aliya has been cleaner than any other gymnast and if she is able to stay healthy and stay clean she is a top candidate for silver. Third place was a struggle for me because I know Becky Downie is more inconsistent than any other gymnast on this list. If she hits then third place is hers or it could be Huidan's too.

I think that Huidan will make a small error based on some of her performances this year but could surprise me. Ashton is in fourth because she is consistent and I think that if it goes like last year then consistent will place well. I went out on a limb and said Komova will make the team and make finals but with her off form she won't be a threat for medal this year. Kyla Ross lacks the difficulty to challenge this year as everyone else has upgraded. Harold is in last place because her consistency is lacking and her difficulty could be higher.

There are five gymnasts that have a realistic shot at winning the title and the others are only hoping that all five miss and let them have the title.

Balance Beam

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Maria Kharenkova
4. Bai Yawen
5. Simone Biles
6. Andreea Munteanu
7. Kyla Ross
8. Shang Chunsong

I think that this is the year that Larisa finally wins a beam title but then again if she does a horrible layout like at Euros then she can kiss that gold away. It is quite sad how a gymnast can do a very big element and then struggle on a less difficult one. Her best bet is to go for the big elements and hope for the payoff. Aliya is the defending champion and her new additions on beam should keep her in the medal picture. She could defend the title but the judges are favoring Larisa at the moment but that could change. Maria Kharenkova is in third because of her consistency and difficulty. The tipping point for me was that Bai Yawen does some combinations to get bonuses and executes them poorly - that is sure to cost her more than the bonus.

Simone Biles is in fifth place because her difficulty is lacking - she's playing it safe to stay on the beam. We saw how that went at Nationals which we can assume she will take into consideration at Worlds. Andreaa has big difficulty but has missed when it matters and also lacks that prestige that is required to win. Kyla's lack of difficulty will finally catch up to her on this final - even if she hits she will not be in the top three. Chunsong is inconsistent when the lights are on her and I can't see her winning a medal this time around.

Floor

1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Claudia Fragapane
4. Mykayla Skinner
5. Aliya Mustafina
6. Giulia Steingruber
7. Vanessa Ferrari
8. Shang Chunsong

The floor final is the final everyone knows who is going to win but doesn't know where everyone else is going to place. I'll focus on two through eight, Larisa is the front runner for silver because of her upgrades and her general comfort with the skills she performs - if she stays on her feet silver is hers. I'm going to go against my better judgment and say Fragapane medals on floor - she sticks her very complicated saltos with bad form which the judges ignore.

Skinner is super inconsistent and that Moors is dreadful even when she lands it in bounce. Aliya is back in the floor finals because she has awesome non-acrobatic combinations and complicated saltos. Her twisting form is going to give her major deductions but could sneak in because she feeds of the pressure. Giulia is very inconsistent on this piece this year and has zero artistry - judges, please judge her on that. Vanessa hit once and I don't think that she can hit twice in a year. Shang Chunsong is in last place because the judges find errors in her saltos that no one else can spot and will probably hammer her on that alone.

Agree or disagree with me? Let me know, if you comment with something compelling I might just change the orders.

Gymnastics News: UK/British Team Named

The British squads for the 2014 World Championships in Nanning have been released and some surprises have appeared. The obvious omissions of some of the currently injured gymnasts are clear and have led to some unknowns being named to both the men's and women's team. Below is the list of both squads.

Men: Max Whitlock, Kristian Thomas, Daniel Purvis, Daniel Keatings, Nile Wilson and Courtney Tulloch.

Reserve: Frank Bains

Women: Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Ruby Harold, Hannah Whelan, Kelly Simm, Gabby Jupp and Charlie Fellows.

If anyone is wondering why they named seven gymnasts to the women's team it is because they are going to name the reserve at a later date. It appears as though they haven't fully committed to a certain gymnasts but the way the article was released it could be a battle between Gabby Jupp and Charlie Fellows - possibly even Kelly Simm.

The women's team has suffered an injury to one of their main gymnasts and that is probably the reason why the team is in such a state. I believe the injured gymnast is Tunney but I'm not sure of that. The loss doesn't seem to be a big one but they are trying to pick the gymnast that will likely hit under pressure.

In the end they will likely have beam as their weakest piece and uneven bars their best apparatus. They will be fighting against the Russians for that bronze medal and will not be able to rely on their three double twisting yurchenko vaults to get them ahead of the Russian team. The Russian are likely going to perform three double twisting yurchenko vaults unlike at Euros. It might just come down to who stays on the beam.

The men's team on the other hand is much more experimental with the addition of Nile Wilson and Courtney Tulloch. Nile Wilson is a first year senior that has shown promise but can he hit on the pieces that Max Whitlock was supposed to? I'm not sure where they are going to place them, I know that he's great on pieces but those are usually the ones that the team is already good on. With regards to Courtney I have never heard of him before this time. It appears he is a rings specialist, a piece that the British team is particularly weak on.

The British team is really on an uprise and will probably benefit the most with the additional team member allowed at Worlds. I think with the injuries on some of the other teams this team is the team that is favored for the bronze but not assured. I think that either the Russian or US team can snatch it away with a single mistake by the British team. An example would be Max Whitlock falling off pommel horse and the team losing out on a big score.

What do you guys think of this team?

 

Question Time: Which Duo Will Form The Next All Around Rivalry in Rio?

Since the 1960s there have been great Olympic All Around duals/rivalries that have defined the gymnastics competition of that year. Which duo will form part of the rivalry that will surely exist at the Rio Olympics? I'm sure some people have names in mind and some of those names are for sure not even going to be there but are big at the moment.

Some of the great rivalries that existed before were: Věra Čáslavská/Larisa Latynina, Ludmilla Tourischeva/ Olga Korbut, Nadia Comaneci/Nelli Kim, Yelena Davydova/Nadia Comaneci, Mary Lou Retton/Ekaterina Szabo, Yelena Shushunova/Daniela Silivas, Tatiana Gutsu/Shannon Miller, Lilia Podkapayeva/Mo Huilan and many more. The more recent are obvious and fresh in our minds Liukin/Johnson and Douglas/Komova.

The fact is that every cycle a duo has emerged to challenge each other into a higher level of gymnastics. Since the CoP was changed to an open ended scoring system the All Around champion has been only decided by less than three tenths of a point. The assumption would be that the champion would be decided by a wider margin but the opposite effect is actually occurring. The difference between the champion and the runner up are almost as close as before the change in the code. Although, I certainly doubt that something like Gutsu/Miller would occur again but Wieber/Komova in 2011 showed that it can happen. I thought that given the way deductions work these days it wouldn't go down to the hundreds of a point. The difference in 2011 was a mere .043 and only .012 in 1992.

Here are a few of the gymnasts that will take part in the dual,

Simone Biles

Simone has the potential to win the All Around but her artistry is seriously lacking and while the code was previously oriented towards that angle it is now swayed back towards artistry. The CoP has added lack of artistry deductions and other elements to weigh down the scoring advantages that some muscular gymnasts have. She might end up winning Worlds but then have an Olympic judging team nail her with deductions that were otherwise being ignored.

Strength: Physicality, power, big skills
Weakness: Zero artistry, lack of seriousness, weak toe point

Larisa Iordache

Larisa is a gymnast that has wanted to challenge in an All Around and has fixed up her weak apparatus but is still not enough to win. If she wants to have her name up on that medal podium then she is going to need an Amanar vault, she's capable of it too. Will she put her best skills out there or will she stick to what she's known to do?

Strength: Endurance, energy, health
Weakness: Inconsistency, bars, composure

Aliya Mustafina

The current real challenger to Simone is Aliya, she is the only person that can have a realistic shot at winning - not Kyla and not Larisa. Aliya's strong enough on all apparatus now where as before she was weak on beam but that is not the case anymore. Winning the beam title in 2013 is going to elevate her reputation with the judges. It will also come in handy as this cycle is the cycle for beam like 2008 was for uneven bars.

The biggest scores will likely still come out on bars but the second highest marks will probably be from beam. If that turns out to be the case then Aliya will have two good apparatuses to draw massive numbers from.

Aliya's big challenge will come from within her own team if youngsters come along and snatch her all around spot or if veterans like Komova come back strong. Aliya could win the all around or not even be in the picture.

Strength: Consistency, form on bars, mental stability, intelligence (she is known to calculate her D-score while she's performing)
Weakness: Twisting form, endurance, age

Bailie Key

The strongest non-senior gymnast competing to come out of this cycle is US junior Bailie Key. While her scores are on the low side when compared to a senior she will have time to catch up. Word out about her is that she's training an Amanar vault and judging by her great double twisting yurchenko is bound to be true. She is currently recovering from an injury and while it may sound like nothing could limit her future development or take her out completely like Ohashi.

Bailie is pushing herself hard when she can easily win by going 75 per cent. I'm thinking of Aliya doing an Amanar vault when she could have won without it and then injured herself on it. This is something that could happen to his youngster but it could go okay for her. I really want to see how she challenges Simone because Kyla is not a real threat.

Strength: Form, youth, toe point.
Weakness: Lack of difficulty, experience, bars

Gymnastics News: Ekaterina Tyunina Beam Winner and Larisa Wins Swiss Friendly

A few weeks ago the Russian meet Spartakiade took place and a relative unknown gymnast won the title. Ekaterina Tyunina was the winner and yet we haven't heard much about her nor have we seen her at major Russian competitions. I'm not sure how old she is but I would dare to say that she is new to the senior field or might even be a junior.

I like her style of movement on the beam, she does need to extend her split leaps and improve little things here and there. The best thing about her is her nice connections and some very hardly seen skills. The skill that I found most interesting was her full twisting wolf jump. The move has been done before but none of the elite gymnasts perform it regularly.

Check her out!

Larisa Iordache has continued with her impressive all around streak by winning a small friendly meet in Switzerland. The Swiss meet is an annual tournament that gathers three national teams and includes an all around competition. The Romanian team lost the team competition to the Germans and aren't looking good for the Worlds. 

On the bright side Larisa easily won but can she win a model with those routines and those scores? I don't really know what to think about Larisa, she impresses me sometimes and then I see her give mediocre and inconsistent routines with misses elements. Only time will tell what the Worlds has in store for her. 

Breaking Down: Nabieva Release on Uneven Bars

I decided to do a breaking down of the Nabieva release upon recent news that young and promising Brazilian gymnast, Rebeca Andrade, was training said skill. The Nabieva shares the honor of being the most highly rated element on uneven bars and is considered one of, if not, the most difficult releases in the women's field.

The Nabieva release was introduced by Russian gymnast Tatiana Nabieva back in 2010. Nabieva was performing that skill very well that year but did not keep it in her program the following years. She is said to be working on the release and a video of her emerged not too long ago showing her training it. She is close to being able to do the skill but that skill is never a sure bet even when it's fully prepared. 

The Nabieva is defined as pike sole circle backward with counter stretched hecht (layout position over HB) to hang - assuming on the high bar. The skill has a G letter value and is 7 tenths. Below is the diagram provided by the FIG in the CoP. 

Nabieva's attempt,

 

Andrade's attempt,

It is safe to say that both gymnasts have better than not form on entry but misjudge the the distance. I don't think either is close to having the skill down as competition ready but they are working on it. 

- videos via Alyssia Spaan and Gymnastics Coaching. 

Aliya Vs. Simone

After the 2014 European Championships I had written off any chance that Aliya Mustafina would medal at Worlds but after her Russian Cup performances all of that has changed. Aliya was very lucky to medal in the All Around back in 2013, she was coming off an injury and wasn't showing her best. To her benefit the others faltered on one or more pieces and opened the door for a consistent Mustafina to step right in and take a medal.

With the emergence of the new Aliya some are painting her as a credible challenge to Simon Biles. Andy Thornton over at American Gymnast wrote a very good article comparing the two's potential D-score and other things. The real question is what is behind this change of focus when it appeared Aliya would not be in the mix.

The first reason is that Larisa Iordache, the most credible threat for most of the early part of the year has been showing inconsistencies and lack of improvement. At last week's Romanian event she showed upgrades but made big mistakes while attempting some of those elements. She touched the beam on one of her high scoring tumbles, had an issue with her layout, messed up on bars and hasn't upgraded on vault. The only saving grace for Larisa is that any mistake by Simone on floor will for sure give her the title.

Yao Jinnan on the other hand has worked ferociously to get an uneven bars routine that reaches 7.0 without the Mo salto. The only problem with her is that her tumbling isn't all that there and I don't know if the judges are going to kill her on that or if they are going to Iordache it like they are doing for Larisa on bars. There really isn't too much out there about her and I don't know what she is going to be doing but I wouldn't be shocked if she surprised me.

Now to the actual battle, Andy Thornton did a nice graph showing their current D-scores but I want to predict the attempted D-scores at Worlds. Below are their current D-scores.

Starting off on vault, both gymnasts are locked with those respective vaults a two and a half and a double yurchenko. Both gymnasts have mastered their vaults and the likelihood of anything changing in that is highly unlikely. If something did change it would be news in and of itself.

On uneven bars both gymnasts are going to be making upgrades because they are both capable of more but are saving themselves. Simone Biles is more conservative on this piece is likely only going to adding her 3 tenths back She performed a 6.1 routine last year and there is no sign that she is going to launch a full upgrade.

Aliya has been performing a watered down routine of 6.3, the same one that she has been using for home and continental competitions. After her defeat at Euros she is sure to add difficulty to be able to challenge Downie and the Chinese. I don't expect her to bring back her 2013 Worlds routine, instead I assume she will add a chow 1/2 after her pak release and do her Mustafina dismount. The first addition would add 2 tenths of connection value and 1 tenth for having an E element instead of an D. The dismount upgrade would add another one tenth of value giving her a D-score of 6.7.

Moving on to the balance beam we have Simone performing an upgraded 6.5 routine. She showed that at US nationals and fell once while doing said routine. The mood so far with Simone is that she is going to play it safe because she knows that she has a big lead over most of her challengers. A fall at Nationals didn't make a difference but at Worlds it will surely put it in contention regardless of what the NBC commentators said. She's definitely capable of more but it might come at a cost.

Last year this piece was Aliya's weakest during the All Around and that appears to have changed. Her D-score on beam ranged from 6.4 to 6.6 during Russian Cup. The overwhelming opinion is that she is going for even more connections and could get credited with more. The problem is that it came from a domestic event which can be misleading - Jordyn Wieber 2012. I feel that she will try to keep it at 6.6, she'll go for more but will probably only be awarded with the 6.6. If you couple that with her being the reigning World Champion on beam and her sudden improvement in consistency, then she should be rewarded with a better score than last year.

The floor is the apparatus that both gymnasts are likely going to focus upgrades on. Simone has a 6.5 D-score on floor but has shown some faults. She received 6.4 on the second day of Nationals after an incomplete rotation on a leap. She can easily upgrade her eponymous jump with a full twisting double layout. I would expect that rather than seeing her add a complicated turning element. I would put her D-score at 6.5 to 6.6.

Aliya's D-score at the Cup was only 5.7 with three tumbling passes, one of which was watered down. This routine is certainly not the one that she is going to be performing at Worlds, don't assume that for a second. She is more likely to use last year's routine as a base. She will probably add whips to her double arabian mount for 2 tenths extra. She can add her triple twist or the double layout she has been working on for the past few years. For the purpose of this we shall assume the former and add 5 tenths. Her D-score would be 6.4 assuming she hits everything and that's not a sure thing.

A+A E+A (+.3), D+C (+.2), E, D, E+B (+.1), D, C

Aliya would have a higher D-score but would be taking more of a risk by doing complicated connections. GymnasticsCoaching mentioned they would prefer seeing Aliya be clean, which was her strategy last year. I think we've moved on from being clean, that title belongs to Kyla Ross - always clean never spectacular. Aliya needs to be herself and if she's practiced well enough should hit. Simone needs to be herself and that's it - she doesn't need others missing.

If you agree with me or disagree drop me a line and please go read Andy's long article.

Svetlana Khorkina 2000 All-Around Champion(?), If...

Svetlana Khorkina lost the 2000 All Around title but not many know that she didn't lose it on the vault. Svetlana was a blatant victim of the stupidity of the Olympic organizers wrongfully placing the vaulting horse a few centimeters below the required height for women's competition. Svetlana did fall on her first vault and she did score a very low score but was still alive in the competition with that mistake.

Svetlana began her rotation on floor, she performed one of those classic Sveta floor performances - heavy on expression and light on tumbling. The music really suited her artistic abilities and she took advantage of that. She was rewarded with a 9.812 for her effort and appeared to be well underway towards an All Around title or medal at least.

Then everything changed, she moved on to the vault and it all changed from there. The commentator makes a remark that she has fallen on her two warm-up vaults and is on edge. That's when the classic yell/shout is heard. I had never known who she was yelling at but it was her personal coach, Boris Pilkin. His hearing probably wasn't the best and maybe she wasn't yelling that much but she was upset. She wanted everything to be perfect so that she could put her vault to her feet. 

As everyone knows she didn't but was able stick her second vault. I'll explain why I think she didn't lose the title on vault after the video. Her averaged score for vault was 9.343.

Svetlana then moved over to her best apparatus the uneven bars. She started off really well hitting her handstands and being her usual sell until she fell on her Tkatchev release and with that lost the All Around title. Sveta scored 9.012, counting a miss on one's highest scoring event is a fatal blow that can not be fixed no matter how great one is in the other pieces. 

Then she was off to perform on her final apparatus the balance beam - knowing that she would not be the champion. They mentioned that she had a fall in the warm up and looked like she wouldn't be holding up. That's when she delivered a confident performance with almost no noticeable bobbles or wobbles for a 9.762 routine. A very good score considering that she didn't even qualify for beam final - the only apparatus she didn't qualify to. 

Her final score, after all four apparatus scores were added together, was 37.929. That score landed her all the way down in 10th place. If we count her fall on vault but go with the scenario that she had not fallen on her Tkatchev release then things would change dramatically. Sveta scored 9.012 in the All Around but had scored 9.850 during qualifications which would mean a good routine would have gotten her a good 8 tenths higher. Adding 8 tenths to her final score of 37.929 would gives us 38.729.

If that score is compared to Simona Amanar's, the All Around champion, score of 38.642 then Svetlana would come out on top. Svetlana would have been the champion counting a fall! She would not have been the winner on that night though as Andrea Raducan won that night with a score of 38.893 but was later stripped of her title after testing positive for some banned substance. 

If that scenario would have taken place Svetlana would have won the Silver medal that night but then would have been given the Gold medal. I don't surmise Svetlana being happy either way as she found the whole process a travesty and a title stolen. She would later compete at the 2004 Olympics with the feeling that something was stolen from her and she was there to get what was rightfully hers. 

Gymnastics News: Afanasyeva at 2014 Worlds?

In a telephone interview with R-Sport Valentina Rodionenko has revealed that Ksenia Afanasyeva is on the short list of potential gymnasts for the 2014 World Championships. In the interview she goes on to state that Ksenia has been training 'quietly' since her ankle operation. She goes on to say that Ksenia doesn't need to learn any new moves because she is an experienced gymnast.

There is something wrong with the way Valentina speaks about Ksenia without confirming with Ksenia beforehand. Valentina did the same thing early on in the year and was surely a factor in pushing Ksenia to perform at the Russian National's earlier this year. I don't think that she has anything against Ksenia but this is just the way she is with a gymnast that she becomes frustrated with. She really likes calling the gymnasts fat if they are out of shape or if she has a falling out with them.

My opinion is that if Ksenia is seriously training then she would be very appreciated on the team but will probably not be ready for Worlds. I have a lot of faith in Ksenia but hopes of her coming back so soon are not a good thing at this moment. Ksenia herself has said that her recovery is forecasted to take a year which would mean she'll likely be back for Russian Nationals next year.

Do you guys think that Ksenia will make to the Worlds?

Relive Russian Cup Event Finals

If you missed the Russian Cup stream because you were asleep or didn't know it was streaming then you can watch it below! The Cup shed light on the continuous bad luck the Russian national team has been experiencing over the last couple of years. The team is not as injured as before but with the possibility of Denis Ablyazin and Aleksandr Balandin both being out of Worlds is something and Nikolai Kuksenkov possibly coping with an injury. It could be worse as was seen at last year's competition.

The winners on the women's side were Sosnitskaya, Komova, Mustafina, Mustafina. Vault was by far the weakest piece shown at the Cup but respectable. Komova proved that she still has that beautiful form that made her World Champion on bars. Mustafina showed that even coming off of an injury she was still commanding on beam and floor.

The closest finals were bars and beam, Mustafina came in second on bars and first on beam. Maria Kharenkova performed a good routine but was unable to perform the same routine that she performed on day one. It was not filled with major errors but rather with one bobble on her layout and the missed connection out of it. Couple that error with Aliya connecting the bulk of her elements propelling her to first place.

The even final winners on the Men's side were Belyavski, Kuksenkov, Ablyazin, Britan, Kuksenkov, Ignatyev. Kuksenkov impressed by performing quite well with an injury to his back.