Opinion: Worlds Predictions

The gymnastics blogs are coming out with predictions for the 2014 Worlds and after reading Beautiful Gymnastics predictions I felt compelled to come out with my own. There were some very differing views on some of the events that made me think I needed to come out with something that expressed how I felt things would actually turn out.

I'm only going to try and predict the women's field because the men are so competitive it is just so hard to narrow it down. If one compares the men's teams to the women's teams then you realize that around eight or more teams have a chance of medalling where the women only have only five real contenders. Then to complicate things even more the men have specialist from far away countries like Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Azerbaijan that could medal on any given piece. To use figures, at the 2012 Olympics in the women's event finals only five nations medalled.

Team All-Around

1. United States 
2. China
3. Russia
4. Great Britain
5. Romania

Romania, with the lose of one of their strongest gymnasts is all but out of a chance of medalling unless they find a gymnast to fill those big shoes. Great Britain has good gymnasts but are weak on beam and are sure to face a much stiffer competition from the Russians than they did at Europeans. The Chinese have not been seen much at international competitions but with great bar workers are sure to build a lead from that. Two and three could change hands if the Chinese don't bring it. Then there is the US which is the team to beat but if they miss twice this title is going down fast. Nothing is certain but if everyone hits this is going to be the order that will likely occur.

Individual All-Around

1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Larisa Iordache
4. Kyla Ross

If everyone hits the order is going to go down like that but as we know everyone doesn't usually hit in the all-around. We seem to know what Simone is capable of performing but the three other gymnasts are all up in the air. I had intended to put Kyla Ross in third but her difficulty is really down and even a miss by Larisa would probably keep her ahead of Kyla. I wouldn't be surprised if someone else on the US team didn't edge her out in qualifications. Aliya has raised her difficulty but I haven't seen her sets to fully say she has a shot at winning. So far this year the top three have been better than Kyla and are more consistent.

Vault

1. Simone Biles
2. Mykayla Skinner
3. Giulia Steingruber
4. Hong un Jong
5. Maria Paseka

The vault is by far the easiest prediction of the Worlds, everyone knows that Biles will likely win and if not then Skinner will. The real battle is for third place and that is likely going to the very consistent Giulia Steingruber but that doesn't mean that Hong un Jong won't take it away with two solid vaults. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Paseka hits two vaults and finishes in fifth place but that's unlikely to occur.

Uneven Bars

1. Yao Jinnan
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Becky Downie
4. Ashton Locklear
5. Huang Huidan
6. Viktoria Komova
7. Kyla Ross
8. Ruby Harold

Bars is like a complete mystery because it can change in instant even with the best gymnast. Predictions are almost worthless on bars because one small mistake means everything on bars. Yao Jinnan was expected to win last year and ended up not even medalling. I think last year's failure has motivated her more than any other gymnast - she's the one to beat, execution score and difficulty. Aliya has been cleaner than any other gymnast and if she is able to stay healthy and stay clean she is a top candidate for silver. Third place was a struggle for me because I know Becky Downie is more inconsistent than any other gymnast on this list. If she hits then third place is hers or it could be Huidan's too.

I think that Huidan will make a small error based on some of her performances this year but could surprise me. Ashton is in fourth because she is consistent and I think that if it goes like last year then consistent will place well. I went out on a limb and said Komova will make the team and make finals but with her off form she won't be a threat for medal this year. Kyla Ross lacks the difficulty to challenge this year as everyone else has upgraded. Harold is in last place because her consistency is lacking and her difficulty could be higher.

There are five gymnasts that have a realistic shot at winning the title and the others are only hoping that all five miss and let them have the title.

Balance Beam

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Maria Kharenkova
4. Bai Yawen
5. Simone Biles
6. Andreea Munteanu
7. Kyla Ross
8. Shang Chunsong

I think that this is the year that Larisa finally wins a beam title but then again if she does a horrible layout like at Euros then she can kiss that gold away. It is quite sad how a gymnast can do a very big element and then struggle on a less difficult one. Her best bet is to go for the big elements and hope for the payoff. Aliya is the defending champion and her new additions on beam should keep her in the medal picture. She could defend the title but the judges are favoring Larisa at the moment but that could change. Maria Kharenkova is in third because of her consistency and difficulty. The tipping point for me was that Bai Yawen does some combinations to get bonuses and executes them poorly - that is sure to cost her more than the bonus.

Simone Biles is in fifth place because her difficulty is lacking - she's playing it safe to stay on the beam. We saw how that went at Nationals which we can assume she will take into consideration at Worlds. Andreaa has big difficulty but has missed when it matters and also lacks that prestige that is required to win. Kyla's lack of difficulty will finally catch up to her on this final - even if she hits she will not be in the top three. Chunsong is inconsistent when the lights are on her and I can't see her winning a medal this time around.

Floor

1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Claudia Fragapane
4. Mykayla Skinner
5. Aliya Mustafina
6. Giulia Steingruber
7. Vanessa Ferrari
8. Shang Chunsong

The floor final is the final everyone knows who is going to win but doesn't know where everyone else is going to place. I'll focus on two through eight, Larisa is the front runner for silver because of her upgrades and her general comfort with the skills she performs - if she stays on her feet silver is hers. I'm going to go against my better judgment and say Fragapane medals on floor - she sticks her very complicated saltos with bad form which the judges ignore.

Skinner is super inconsistent and that Moors is dreadful even when she lands it in bounce. Aliya is back in the floor finals because she has awesome non-acrobatic combinations and complicated saltos. Her twisting form is going to give her major deductions but could sneak in because she feeds of the pressure. Giulia is very inconsistent on this piece this year and has zero artistry - judges, please judge her on that. Vanessa hit once and I don't think that she can hit twice in a year. Shang Chunsong is in last place because the judges find errors in her saltos that no one else can spot and will probably hammer her on that alone.

Agree or disagree with me? Let me know, if you comment with something compelling I might just change the orders.